THE SIGNAL AND THE NOISE (BY NATE SILVER)
The Swedish Investor 15:06
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A top 5 takeaways (my interpretation and favorites) summary of Nate Silver’s book about the art and science of prediction, The Signal and the Noise.
Get a better understanding of probabilities and uncertainty - here's a playlist of Nassim Taleb's greatest works: http://bit.ly/2Op6AA5
Top 5 takeaways from Nate Silver’s The Signal and the Noise:
00:00 Intro
00:14 1. The signal and the noise
02:40 2. We have a prediction problem frequency
06:07 3. Correlation does not equal causation
08:22 4. How can we become better at predicting?
10:53 5. Bayes’ theorem
TL;DW:
- The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth. More data means more noise in relation the signal.
- Some situations are particularly difficult to forecast, especially when an event is out of sample, we are forecasting a dynamic system and when there’s a lack of theory in the domain.
- Correlation does not mean causation – make sure that there’s a logical explanation for the mathematical relationship before using it in your predictions
- We can become better at predicting by thinking probabilistically, updating our forecast when we are presented with new evidence, and by looking for consensus
- Use Bayes’ theorem, or at least think in a Bayesian way, when new information presents itself
My goal with this channel is to help you make more money and improve your personal finances. How to become a millionaire? There are many ways to get there – investing in the stock market, becoming a stock trader, doing real estate investing, or why not becoming an entrepreneur? But whether you are interested in how to invest in stocks or investing strategies for creating passive income with rental properties – I hope to be able to provide you with a solution (or at least an idea) here. Warren Buffett - the greatest investor of our time - says that you should fill your mind with competing ideas and then see what makes sense to you. This channel is about filling your mind with those ideas. And in the process – upgrading your money-making toolbox.
As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualified purchases.
A top 5 takeaways (my interpretation and favorites) summary of Nate Silver’s book about the art and science of prediction, The Signal and the Noise.
Get a better understanding of probabilities and uncertainty - here's a playlist of Nassim Taleb's greatest works: http://bit.ly/2Op6AA5
Top 5 takeaways from Nate Silver’s The Signal and the Noise:
00:00 Intro
00:14 1. The signal and the noise
02:40 2. We have a prediction problem frequency
06:07 3. Correlation does not equal causation
08:22 4. How can we become better at predicting?
10:53 5. Bayes’ theorem
TL;DW:
- The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth. More data means more noise in relation the signal.
- Some situations are particularly difficult to forecast, especially when an event is out of sample, we are forecasting a dynamic system and when there’s a lack of theory in the domain.
- Correlation does not mean causation – make sure that there’s a logical explanation for the mathematical relationship before using it in your predictions
- We can become better at predicting by thinking probabilistically, updating our forecast when we are presented with new evidence, and by looking for consensus
- Use Bayes’ theorem, or at least think in a Bayesian way, when new information presents itself
My goal with this channel is to help you make more money and improve your personal finances. How to become a millionaire? There are many ways to get there – investing in the stock market, becoming a stock trader, doing real estate investing, or why not becoming an entrepreneur? But whether you are interested in how to invest in stocks or investing strategies for creating passive income with rental properties – I hope to be able to provide you with a solution (or at least an idea) here. Warren Buffett - the greatest investor of our time - says that you should fill your mind with competing ideas and then see what makes sense to you. This channel is about filling your mind with those ideas. And in the process – upgrading your money-making toolbox.
Category (YouTube): Education
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