Could AI replace all programmers in 5 years?

* Educated, professional explanation of the state of the benchmarks used to test Generative AI code generation.
* What those benchmarks do (or don't) tell us about the gap between LLMs and programmer jobs.
* Advice about what traditional programmers should focus on in the next year or two.

Links from the video:

Article with benchmarks for a new LLM with supposedly "Near Human Abilities" (LOL):
https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2024/03/the-ai-wars-heat-up-with-claude-3-claimed-to-have-near-human-abilities/

HumanEval Benchmark:
https://github.com/openai/human-eval
https://github.com/openai/human-eval/blob/master/data/HumanEval.jsonl.gz

MIT Intro to Python class (for comparison:
https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/6-189-a-gentle-introduction-to-programming-using-python-january-iap-2011/
https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/6-189-a-gentle-introduction-to-programming-using-python-january-iap-2011/pages/assignments/
https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/6-189-a-gentle-introduction-to-programming-using-python-january-iap-2011/resources/mit6_189iap11_final_proj/

CEO of Stability AI claiming "No (Human) Programmers in Five Years" (LOL):
https://decrypt.co/147191/no-human-programmers-five-years-ai-stability-ceo

My video on Incentives for managers in Software:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hKqqU1J-WXk

NOTE: (Not that anyone will read this, but) When this video uses the term "AI." it (like most of the current discourse these days) means current and near future "Generative AI" a.k.a. Large Language Models. If you're thinking about the Agents from the Matrix or the Robots from Terminator, that's DIFFERENT. That's the OTHER AI, the Human-Intelligence General AI, Sometimes called "AGI." That DOES NOT EXIST. For the time being it's PURE FICTION. It may get here soon, although I (and a lot of people smarter than me) seriously doubt it, but we'll see.