Why Haven't We Had That Oil Crisis... Yet?

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#oil #money #finance

*** Sources ***

Timelines

https://santamariatimes.com/ap/national/a-timeline-of-the-iran-conflict-and-talks-aimed-at-ending-it/article_4703cf11-536e-5751-b91b-17b043dd821d.html

https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-timeline-trump-hormuz-war-ceasefire-04da58cbae991183f8b52ef5bf615963

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https://www.wsj.com/finance/commodities-futures/oil-falls-on-prospects-u-s-iran-tensions-may-be-contained-5a767f46

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/02/oil-prices-fall-after-us-iran-talks-conclude-in-doha.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/08/oil-prices-brent-wti-iran-us-hormuz.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/29/oil-prices-iran-ceasefire-us-trump-strait-hormuz-energy-costs.html

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/traders-place-large-950-million-bet-oil-price-falling-hours-ahead-ceasefire-2026-04-08/

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W

https://www.ft.com/content/bcec986d-52ac-47c5-a0c5-74cbe59dd524?syn-25a6b1a6=1

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-07/oil-market-liquidity-dries-up-as-traders-sit-out-war-volatility?embedded-checkout=true

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/the-world-is-quietly-adapting-to-9-less-oil-100000514.html

https://www.statista.com/statistics/240600/global-oil-importers-by-region-2011/?srsltid=AfmBOorBDBT9IEra9_eG-DceWUo_GCPq7YKJ8kSgV_4p248BQSjAVrCs

https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/currency

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ate last week oil futures dropped as the president confirmed productive talks with Iran over an ongoing resolution to the straight of Hormuz,
But of course sure enough (at a new record pace) just 3 hours later there was a fresh wave of strikes on tankers, causing oil prices to bounce back up again and end the week higher…
As a surprise to absolutely nobody this also happened just 15 minutes after financial markets closed.
A week before that; talks were set up in Doha (prices fell), 6 days later the talks were called a waste of time and prices rose. A week before that, prices were pushed down on positive announcements of “great progress” in negotiations, and then rose again when that too fell apart.
Prices rose, prices fell, rose again, fell again, rose again, fell again (just after a conveniently timed trade), rose again and this has all happened at least a dozen times as of when this video is published…
(Oh and side note, in the three days that it has taken me to write this script, the war has apparently been resolved and renewed another two times…)
which is kind of a little bit embarrassing right?
And I mean, not just geopolitically embarrassing, but also financially embarrassing….
These oil futures markets manage billions of dollars every day, in one of the world's most vital resources, and are (apparently) run mostly by massive institutions with teams of highly skilled analysts at their disposal to piece together information you and I just don’t have access to…
Which does raise a pretty obvious question…
How many times are these oil markets going to keep falling for this?
If we are being incredibly generous all of these announcements have clearly been… premature…
Realistically it’s fairly clear that some level of market manipulation is going on here, with several instances of significant trades being placed just minutes before major market movements,
so, why are these “supposedly” highly informed, highly sophisticated market participants still following along with a pattern that basically everybody can see?
Oh yeah and I guess we should probably also look at why oil prices are just going ahead and falling anyway…