The Stock Market or The Economy: Which Is Right?

In "The stock market or The Economy: Which Is Right?" we explore why US equity valuation is close to a 20-year high and yet we are seeing the worst economic data in living memory. We also explore factors that could trigger a second equity market selloff.

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Video timings with thanks to Complex
00:00 intro
00:53 Economic data; US Unemployment since the Depression (NYT)
01:52 PMI data
02:50 GDP data
03:22 Why Equities not selling off; Forward 12-month P/E
04:30 "willing suspension of disbelief" (STC)
05:04 the VIX ("the fear index")
05:45 What is the Fed doing?
06:06 battery of acronyms (the Fed's via IMF Global Financial Stability report)
08:42 the Fed's balance sheet
09:46 Rate cuts across the world's central banks
10:02 fiscal policy (US govt)
10:34 financial furloughing(US)
11:10 What could trigger a sell-off; rating agency assessments
11:51 Credit markets vs. Equity markets
12:20 speculative-grade default rates (US, EMs)
13:17 market concentration of big 5 in S&P500
13:39 stock buy-backs
14:18 dividend cuts
14:54 US-China trade war
15:39 outro

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